Interesting comparison compared to 10 years ago.

It is worth noting the years of extinction of the cohorts.

While 1893 and 1894 went extinct in 2009, 1903 and 1904 went extinct in 2022 and 2023 respectively.

Likewise, 1895 became extinct in 2010 and 1905 in 2022.

1896 and 1906 went extinct in 2012 and 2022 respectively, just 10 years later.

1897 in 2013, I hope 1907 doesn't go extinct in the next 4 months.

This leaves me thinking about the 1890s that dies out in 2017 with the death of Emma Morano (November 29, 1899 – April 15, 2017).

Masa Matsumoto she was born exactly 10 years after Emma Morano, if the decade of 1900-1909 goes extinct before April 15, 2027 it would be bad.

@adancho obviously the 1900s are doing better at this point, but with hindsight we know that all 6 people who survive to 2014 manage to hold out for the entire year. By the beginning of 2025, the 1900s could easily be down to less than 6 people. I think there’s a good chance the cohort will go extinct before the tenth anniversary of Morano’s death. Hopefully a couple people can make it to 2026

@mrcatlord I hope that a couple 1900ers can make it to 2027 or even 2028

Let's remember that in 2020 supercentenarians also did very well even having 9,115+ years living at the same time.

I, too, expect someone from the 1900s-1909s to arrive in late 2027 or early 2028.

I mean it's not impossible how it looked 10 years ago when we even dreamed of a supercentenarian making it to 117 years old.

Kane Tanaka and Lucile Randon reached 118 years of age, and I have no doubt that that age will be reached 2-3 times this decade, perhaps someone will reach a similar age to Kane/Lucile.

Of course, it is likely that in 2025 the current figure will be reduced by half, the reasons are more than obvious so it goes without saying.

List of last remaining people from the 1900s decade continued with deceased cases, including some unvalidated but likely true cases:

A year ago today there were 38 people left from the 1900s. Now there are only 13. That works out to be a 65.8% mortality rate 

14. Ushi Makishi (1909-2023)

15. Hazel Plummer (1908-2023)

16. Nina Willis (1909-2023)

17. Shina Seki (1909-2023)

18. Maki Hirabayashi (1909-2023)

19. Maria Aulenbacher (1909-2023)

20. Yasue Okai (1908-2023)

21. Annabelle Holblinger (1909-2023)

22. Shinobu Hayashi (1909-2023)

23. Lucile Randon (1904-2023)

24. Hide Hamabe (1908-2023)

25. Josephina Maria de Conceição (1909-2023)

26. Shige Mineshiba (1909-2023)

27. Bessie Hendricks (1907-2023)

28. Kahoru Furuya (1908-2022)

29. Juliette Bilde (1909-2022)

30. Kimi Kawasaki (1909-2022)

31. Rachel Kohl (1909-2022)

32. Nina Chagelishvili (1909-2022)

33. Luise Pompe (1908-2022)

34. Elise Tavan (1909-2022

35. Kimiko Ono (1908-2022)

36. Rose Eaton (1909-2022)

37. Mitsuno Sato (1909-2022)

38. Anna Cernohorsky (1909-2022)

39. Fumi Hoshino (1908-2022)

40. Tekla Juniewicz (1906-2022)

41. Barbara Barton (1908-2022)

42. Erna Zahn (1908-2022)

43. Sofia Rojas (1907-2022)

44. Maria da Encarnacao Sousa (1909-2022)

45. Josefine Ollmann (1908-2022)

46. Mila Mangold (1907-2022)

47. Irena Martial (1909-2022)

48. Casilda Benegas (1907-2022)

49. Delio Ventorutti (1909-2022)

50. Catherine Abate (1909-2022)

51. Irene Dunham (1907-2022)

52. Anonymous of Hyogo (1907-2022)

53. Esperanza Mendoza Hermosillo (1909-2022)

54. Ethel Bowens (1909-2022)

55. Kane Tanaka (1903-2022)

@mrcatlord Please, delete Ms. Gaja (fully unvalidated, she can't be listed here).

@ale76 I have removed her from the list. On the other hand, unless there is any evidence against her age Mrs. Gaja is likely a true case given the reliability of Japanese records although her exact birth date is unknown (there’s a 1/28 chance she was both born and died on the exact same day as Furuya). What’s your opinion on Nina C? Could someone help list all the people in my list who are unvalidated (it gets a bit confusing remembering who is and who’s not now with what happened to the wiki)

@mrcatlord Why didn't you include deceased supercentenarians like Kane Tanaka, Tekla Juniewicz, Antonia Da Santa Cruz, etc.?

@adancho it’s in order of when they died. Ushi is #14 because there are (presumably) thirteen still alive and Ushi was the most recent one to die so she’s the fourteenth last person born in the 1900s unless someone else who was still alive when she died gets discovered. After her is Hazel at #15, Nina Willis at #16 because they were the next most recent ones. Currently the list is going as far back as Kimiko Ono (October 31st, 2022). I am about to expand the list further, the next one being Rose Eaton. Soon it will get to Tekla and later Kane and Antonia. It’s not necessarily based on age, just death date and of course they have to be born before 1910

@mrcatlord Ms. Chagelishvili is currently fully unvalidated but I have no particolar info about her.
About Ms. Gaja I am not allowed to disclose private info but I have to thank you for deleting her name in the above list.

@ale76 it says Nina remembered events from the Russian Revolution (late 1910s) as a child, which is a good sign. Obviously further research would need to be done but her age definitely could be real unless there is significant evidence of a younger birthdate.

Update as of 2 September 2023:

On 2 September 2013:

RIP Soledad Mexia (1899-2013), Naomi Conner turned 114

1. Misao Okawa (Japan, 1898, 115)

2. Gertrude Weaver (USA, 1898, 115)

3. Jeralean Talley (USA, 1899, 114)

4. Susannah Mushatt Jones (USA, 1899, 114)

5. Bernice Madigan (USA, 1899, 114)

6. Naomi Conner (USA, 1899, 114)

7. Emma Morano (Italy, 1899, 113)

8.  Grace A. Jones (UK, 1899, 113)

(Next death: Naomi Conner on 18 October 2013)

On 2 September 2023:

Okagi Hayashi turned 114, Kame Uema guaranteed to have turned 114 if still alive. Charlotte Kretschmann now validated (although already listed previously)

On September 2nd, 2023:

1. Maria Branyas Morera (USA-Spain, 1907, 116)

2. Fusa Tatsumi (Japan, 1907, 116)

3. Edie Ceccarelli (USA, 1908, 115)

4. Tomiko Itooka (Japan, 1908, 115)

5. Inah Canabarro Lucas (Brazil, 1908, 115)

6. Juan Vicente Perez Mora (Venezuela, 1909, 114)

Kame Uema (Japan, 1909, 114)

7. Elizabeth Francis (USA, 1909, 114)

8. Ethel Caterham (UK, 1909, 114)

9. Okagi Hayashi (Japan, 1909, 114)

10. Pearl Berg (USA, 1909, 113)

11. Tane Matsubara (Japan, 1909, 113)

12. Masa Matsumoto (Japan, 1909, 113)

13. Charlotte Kretschmann (Germany, 1909, 113)

1890s:

7 people remaining

2 born in 1898, 5 born in 1899

2 at 115, 3 at 114, 2 at 113

9 females, 0 males 

5 USA, 1 Japan, 1 Italy, 1 UK

1900s:

13 people remaining

2 born in 1907, 3 born in 1908, 8 born in 1909

2 at 116, 3 at 115, 4 at 114, 4 at 113

12 females, 1 male 

5 Japan, 3 USA, 1 Spain, 1 Brazil, 1 Venezuela, 1 UK, 1 Germany

Just looking at the older list it will be great if LQ does have the opportunity to review Gertrude Weaver’s case.

30 April 1898 - may well be the latest date of birth estimate that she would receive. I understand that a specific date in April is potentially very difficult.

Posted by: @chrisr

↑

Just looking at the older list it will be great if LQ does have the opportunity to review Gertrude Weaver’s case.

30 April 1898 - may well be the latest date of birth estimate that she would receive. I understand that a specific date in April is potentially very difficult.

While some other people have a similar situation, like Matsu Gaja, I think Weaver’s is especially important firstly because she was WOP and also she could have been 117, and if not, was likely in the gap between Francisca and 117, or the same age as her or Capovilla, or younger than both of them or even in between the two. It would be very interesting if she was born on April 26th because there would be a pattern going 345, 347, 349 with her, Capovilla, and Francisca, and even more cooler in my opinion:

Top Two Oldest People 2013-2015:

Misao Okawa March 5 1898

Gertrude Weaver April 26 1898

Try adding nine years and subtracting one day from each of those birthdates

I’d be happy with a validation at 116-341 on the basis that she could not have been born AFTER 30 April.

Yes …. 117-5 is the possible top end, but to my mind 116-341 and 30 April 1898 is far more accurate than the 4 July birthdate the family adopted.

People are welcome to correct me if I’m recalling this incorrectly, but source documents at the time strongly suggested Gertrude’s mother gave birth in the April of 1898. 

So either that is - or isn’t Gertrude.

Female bodies do not reproduce again 3 months later (July 1898 in this instance). So logically there was no prospect of a July 1898 birth in that family.

It is incredible to think that 10 years ago the third oldest living person in the world was "only" 114 years old (And more if we take into account that Gertrude Weaver was not yet validated at that time)

With only 8 supercentenarians from the decade of 1890-1899, perhaps not a very optimistic scenario, but the decade lasted almost 4 more years.

Even the 1880s died out in 2006 with María Capovilla (1889-2006)

So it would be pretty bad if the decade 1900-1909 disappeared before 2026 or before April 15, 2027.

It would be nice if Gertrude Weaver's case was revised again to confirm an April 1898 birth date, since earlier supercentenarian dates have been revised.

If it is proven that she was born in April 1898, her definitive age would be between 116 years, 341 days and 117 years and 5 days.

@chrisr as for Weaver, the 1900 census stated that she was born in April 1898 but gave her name as "Tonpon". That would seem like a very strong suggestion that she was indeed born in April rather than July. But we also have to remember how inaccurate the census has been proven to be over the years. There could very well be more evidence out there supporting Weaver being older, but it has not been located as far as I know.

Edit: I also just noticed that a delayed birth record of hers from the 1950s also states that she was born on 4 July 1898. So she claimed this date for a long time.

Thanks J

i wasn’t aware of the 1950s birth record, but I do recall that an unusual name (Tonpon as you remind us) was attributed to the April 1898 birth.

Also that’s very interesting feedback about the unreliable nature of the census details.

Possibly that was the deciding factor, in running with July rather than April - because the April suggestion is 50 + years older than the July one.

And of course any July day other than the national holiday of the 4th would have been a better outcome for those sceptical about the July birth date.

Posted by: @chrisr

↑

Thanks J

i wasn’t aware of the 1950s birth record, but I do recall that an unusual name (Tonpon as you remind us) was attributed to the April 1898 birth.

Also that’s very interesting feedback about the unreliable nature of the census details.

Possibly that was the deciding factor, in running with July rather than April - because the April suggestion is 50 + years older than the July one.

And of course any July day other than the national holiday of the 4th would have been a better outcome for those sceptical about the July birth date.

African Americans born in the Deep South during the late 1800s would often be listed in the 1900 census as having dates of birth that don't correspond to what they would claim later on in life. Here are a few other examples of this in some other SCs:

1. Carrie Lazenby, born "February 1882" in 1900 census, later claimed 9 May 1882
2. Moses Hardy, born "January 1894" in 1900 census, later claimed 5 June 1894
3. Delphia Welford, born "April 1876" in 1900 census, later claimed 9 September 1880
4. Easter Wiggins, born "May 1875" in 1900 census, later claimed 1 June 1874
5. Eliza Underwood, born "October 1865" in 1900 census, later claimed 15 March 1866

So I wouldn't necessarily consider these 1900 census dates to be extremely reliable, either. If someone had no idea when they were born in middle age, there's no telling if their parents actually remembered it even just a few years after their birth, either, so Gertrude Weaver's "April 1898" birthdate could just as likely be an estimate as well. However, a document created 2 years after birth should theoretically be given precedence over a document created half a century after birth.

Yes … your final sentence is a very key one Mendocino.

Adopting the “hierarchy of evidence” legal principles that apply in many countries, then in the absence of any further evidence the earlier document would like be seen as “comfortably stronger” than the latter one.

The argument therefore for the latter date could be that it is “safe” - rather than based on the stronger evidence.

Thank you for the other examples showing the propensity for census inaccuracies, particularly for those of African-American descent.

Update as of 21 October 2023:

On 21 October 2013:

RIP Naomi Conner (1899-2013)

1. Misao Okawa (Japan, 1898, 115)

2. Gertrude Weaver (USA, 1898, 115)

3. Jeralean Talley (USA, 1899, 114)

4. Susannah Mushatt Jones (USA, 1899, 114)

5. Bernice Madigan (USA, 1899, 114)

6. Emma Morano (Italy, 1899, 113)

7. Grace A. Jones (UK, 1899, 113)

(Next death: Grace A. Jones on 14 November 2013)

On 21 October 2023:

Pearl Berg and Tane Matsubara turned 114, Kame Uema likely died at 114

On September 2nd, 2023:

1. Maria Branyas Morera (USA-Spain, 1907, 116)

2. Fusa Tatsumi (Japan, 1907, 116)

3. Edie Ceccarelli (USA, 1908, 115)

4. Tomiko Itooka (Japan, 1908, 115)

5. Inah Canabarro Lucas (Brazil, 1908, 115)

6. Juan Vicente Perez Mora (Venezuela, 1909, 114)

7. Elizabeth Francis (USA, 1909, 114)

8. Ethel Caterham (UK, 1909, 114)

9. Okagi Hayashi (Japan, 1909, 114)

10. Pearl Berg (USA, 1909, 114)

11. Tane Matsubara (Japan, 1909, 114)

12. Masa Matsumoto (Japan, 1909, 113)

13. Charlotte Kretschmann (Germany, 1909, 113)

1890s:

7 people remaining

2 born in 1898, 5 born in 1899

2 at 115, 3 at 114, 2 at 113

7 females, 0 males 

4 USA, 1 Japan, 1 Italy, 1 UK

1900s:

13 people remaining

2 born in 1907, 3 born in 1908, 8 born in 1909

2 at 116, 3 at 115, 4 at 114, 2 at 113

12 females, 1 male 

5 Japan, 3 USA, 1 Spain, 1 Brazil, 1 Venezuela, 1 UK, 1 Germany

Could it be that the age bubble is returning?

I think the TOP 5 looks very strong, it has been maintained since January.

I had my doubts about Fusa Tatsumi, I saw her as fragile and I underestimated her, but seeing her with her eyes open in her last photo I now think she exceeded all my expectations, I wouldn't be surprised if she became a second one. Nabi Tajima.

Juan Vicente Pérez Mora looks very good, I think 1909 is a very strong year.

Update as of 3 December 2023:

On 3 December 2013:

RIP Grace A. Jones (1899-2013), Emma Morano turned 114

1. Misao Okawa (Japan, 1898, 115)

2. Gertrude Weaver (USA, 1898, 115)

3. Jeralean Talley (USA, 1899, 114)

4. Susannah Mushatt Jones (USA, 1899, 114)

5. Bernice Madigan (USA, 1899, 114)

6. Emma Morano (Italy, 1899, 114)

(Next death: Bernice Madigan on 3 January 2015)

On 3 December 2023:

Masa Matsumoto and Charlotte Kretschmann turned 114

1. Maria Branyas Morera (USA-Spain, 1907, 116)

2. Fusa Tatsumi (Japan, 1907, 116)

3. Edie Ceccarelli (USA, 1908, 115)

4. Tomiko Itooka (Japan, 1908, 115)

5. Inah Canabarro Lucas (Brazil, 1908, 115)

6. Juan Vicente Perez Mora (Venezuela, 1909, 114)

7. Elizabeth Francis (USA, 1909, 114)

8. Ethel Caterham (UK, 1909, 114)

9. Okagi Hayashi (Japan, 1909, 114)

10. Pearl Berg (USA, 1909, 114)

11. Tane Matsubara (Japan, 1909, 114)

12. Masa Matsumoto (Japan, 1909, 114)

13. Charlotte Kretschmann (Germany, 1909, 114)

1890s:

6 people remaining

2 born in 1898, 4 born in 1899

2 at 115, 4 at 114

7 females, 0 males 

4 USA, 1 Japan, 1 Italy

1900s:

13 people remaining

2 born in 1907, 3 born in 1908, 8 born in 1909

2 at 116, 3 at 115, 8 at 114

12 females, 1 male 

5 Japan, 3 USA, 1 Spain, 1 Brazil, 1 Venezuela, 1 UK, 1 Germany

Update as of 16 January 2024:

On 16 January 2014:

1. Misao Okawa (Japan, 1898, 115)

2. Gertrude Weaver (USA, 1898, 115)

3. Jeralean Talley (USA, 1899, 114)

4. Susannah Mushatt Jones (USA, 1899, 114)

5. Bernice Madigan (USA, 1899, 114)

6. Emma Morano (Italy, 1899, 114)

(Next death: Bernice Madigan on 3 January 2015)

On

16 January 2024:

RIP Fusa Tatsumi (1907-2023) and Tane Matsubara (1909-2024)

1. Maria Branyas Morera (USA-Spain, 1907, 116)

2. Edie Ceccarelli (USA, 1908, 115)

3. Tomiko Itooka (Japan, 1908, 115)

4. Inah Canabarro Lucas (Brazil, 1908, 115)

5. Juan Vicente Perez Mora (Venezuela, 1909, 114)

6. Elizabeth Francis (USA, 1909, 114)

7. Ethel Caterham (UK, 1909, 114)

8. Okagi Hayashi (Japan, 1909, 114)

9. Pearl Berg (USA, 1909, 114)

10. Masa Matsumoto (Japan, 1909, 114)

11. Charlotte Kretschmann (Germany, 1909, 114)

1890s:

6 people remaining

2 born in 1898, 4 born in 1899

2 at 115, 4 at 114

7 females, 0 males 

4 USA, 1 Japan, 1 Italy

1900s:

11 people remaining

1 born in 1907, 3 born in 1908, 7 born in 1909

1 at 116, 3 at 115, 7 at 114

10 females, 1 male 

3 Japan, 3 USA, 1 Spain, 1 Brazil, 1 Venezuela, 1 UK, 1 Germany

Fusa tatsumi passed away in December

So this comparison is 11 verses 6 now.

We could quite possibly have the scores level (or worse) by the time the second score reduces down to 5, at the equivalent date of 3 January 2025.

Posted by: @adancho

↑

Fusa tatsumi passed away in December

My apologies, I guess I had thought Fusa's death was already in the last update (and I had copy-and-pasted the last one so I guess I didn't notice Fusa was still on there). It is corrected now. Mrs. Tatsumi is very missed

Posted by: @chrisr

↑

So this comparison is 11 verses 6 now.

We could quite possibly have the scores level (or worse) by the time the second score reduces down to 5, at the equivalent date of 3 January 2025.

I don't think the number will drop to 5 within a year (January 3, 2025), that would be another collapse we would see.

In my opinion, these 11 supercentenarians of the decade look strong (or at least moderately so).

Maybe the number will be reduced to 8 or 9, no more than that.

But in my opinion these supercentenarians look good.

I tend to agree Adancho.

As you’ll know, annual mortality rates are circa 60% for 114.0+

- but (hopefully) as you suggest. we have some strong candidates in that group going forward.