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Discussion on Oldest Men in History

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ChrisR
(@chrisr)
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There are some good points made above.

To take some of them slightly further it's worth noting that; (post the recent Welford validation).

1. Christian Mortensen was the 8th oldest (of all time) when he died in 1998. - Now 36

2. Jiroemon Kimura got to number 9 when he passed in 2013 - Now 26.

3. Anisio Rodriguez Alves (Pending but very plausible) could be the all time number 6 when he died, in 2009. Now 18.

4. Even Emiliano Mercado del Toro (never the WOMOAT) seems to have been at 12 when he died in 2007. Now 45.

 

Using the top 3 as a broad indicator only, a spot between 6 and 9 (let's be conservative at 8-9) may suggest a male could have made 117-125 to 117-175, by now. Hence just in that regard, 117.0 is somewhere between 'due' and 'overdue'. BUT ...

Despite the unvalidated cases noted, a key issue is that the above 4 (3 validated + 1 pending) still remain the outliers for men. This is despite an average deceased period of circa 18 years (range of 11-26 yrs).

115.0 can still be considered the 'outlier' requirement for males - just as it would have been fifteen to twenty years years ago. (and only JVPM got close). Even the other 2 big pending cases (HCM and TPF) will only entrench 114.5 to circa 114.7, if validated.

By comparison, we can look at the female progression over, say the past 15 years.

With the exception of JC at 122, there was one 119 year old, zero 118 year olds and 2 117 year olds.  All of these were outliers.

Those figures are now 2, 1 and 8 women respectively and no one at 117 can be considered an outlier now, due to the depth of candidates within, above, and just below this age. The outlier status for women is now probably not less than 118.5.   

116 is even more extreme - with 15 of the 18 people (living or deceased) at this age, having come along in the past 15 years. - and all but Tane Ikai within the last 18 years. So all in all higher ages (longer lives at extreme ages) are slowly becoming more entrenched for women, over this period.

Coming back to the men

With no one even getting to 115 for over a dozen years now, the prospect of a 117 year old still seems very remote as - men are not getting within 2 years of this milestone recently - let alone achieving it. 

I believe an unvalidated (or unvalidatable) case may have occurred - but sadly I struggle to see a 117 year old male validated in the next 5-10 years.  On a lighter note, I look forward to being proved wrong.


   
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(@futurist)
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To elaborate on what @ChrisR said above, I think that the first 117+ year-old validated man might very well come from Latin America (short of any surprise cases being validated) due to the sheer fact that most validated 113+ year-old men who were born in the 20th century (1901 and later) were from Latin America. I think that only Israel Kristal, Masazo Nonaka, and Francisco Nunez Olivera were not Latin American out of the validated 113+ year-old men who were born in the 20th century, and even Mr. Nunez Olivera shares a lot of his ancestry with Latin Americans in spite of him not personally being Latin American.


   
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AQ
 AQ
(@aq)
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I totally agree with @chrisr and @futurist

 

Just my opinion, but when the day comes when we actually get a verifiable 117 year old man, these are some things that I expect to probably occur/happen.

- The man will be from most likely Japan/Brazil or Latin America somewhere. 

- Given my calculations of how a 117 year old man should've been born between 1906 and 1911, I think we can say it is with high likelihood that he will be born sometime in the 1910s decade, and become the first man to reach his 117th birthday sometime in the 2030s. 

- He will likely outlive every other male from his birthyear, and at least 2-3 years after. Example: if he was born in say 1915, his successor would likely be born in 1918/1919.

- Given the fact at how unlikely it is for a man to hold the title of WOLM for over 3 years, our 117 year old man will likely gain the title at or around 114.5-114.9, and hold the title for around 2 years and 200+ days.

- He will be in the Top 3 OLP. Maybe not the WOLP, or the vice-WOLP, but absolutely in the Top 3, just like feats held by Mortensen, Celi Mendoza, and Breuning. 

- He will probably reach the top 10 list of Oldest Ever, and close the gap between Mrs. Morano and Mrs. Brown by reaching an age between 117/137 and 117/189. If not, he will hold 12th place by closing the gap between Mrs. Okawa and Mrs. Welford. Remember, when Chris reached 115, and Jiroemon reached 116,  they were in the Top 10. A man reaching 117, would only be at place 13 (117/0 to 117/26). A much more likely event, than what was reached by Chris and Jiroemon!

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