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Supercentenarian Seasonality and Mortality

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Ale76
(@ale76)
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Joined: 2 years ago
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FinbarrC
(@finbarrc)
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Posts: 43
 

Interesting. Fwiw here are my monthly B-D Irish >105 stats. The deaths data generally follows the N Hemisphere pattern but the births maintain a stable trend with obvious spikes in March and May, somewhat in conflict with the SuperC data.

 BD
January2951
February2545
March4029
April2832
May4616
June2623
July2828
August2721
September2727
October2920
November3131
December3538

https://finbarrconnolly.com/chronicle/


   
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ChrisR
(@chrisr)
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A well written article above and full credit to JL for that.

Of particular interest to me is the potential correlation between extreme age and the MONTH OF BIRTH, as a secondary factor, to the known high mortality rates in the colder and darker northern hemisphere months.

Another topic that really interests me is the greater percentage of male supercentenarians (as a proportion of total supercentenarians) that appears to occur in the wider Latin and Central American areas.

These are well above the traditional figures for the likes of Japan. Europe and North America.

The latter are the more traditional “higher latitude” areas and also ones potentially far more impacted by major wars in the past century.

But I sometimes wonder if there’s more to it than that. EG - do the male physical and/or mental characteristics benefit more from better climate or similar variables, than the female ones.

Or is it something simpler, for example some of our Forum members may know if perhaps female birth registration and records may have been inferior to male ones in decades past? Then again. perhaps not; but this has occurred in other populations.

That type of paper would be a very difficult analysis to undertake and perhaps has to remain some years into the future at this stage. Sample (or population) sizes are probably still too small for most ages above 110.

 


   
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930310
(@930310)
Gerontology student
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 641
 

@chrisr @finbarrc Thank you. Yes. This was just a basic overview and I believe that when adjusted for where the individuals were born, we might see some differences in seasonality. A working theory is that we will see very small differences in warmer countries but that the patterns will be even clearer in the colder areas. Also, I think that month of birth being associated with a higher likelihood of becoming a supercentenarian might decrease as many individuals in the newer cohorts will have mothers that had a higher accessibility to proper nutrition during their pregnancies. But there are very likely other factors playing a part as well.

For many areas we simply do not have enough data yet to draw conclusions, especially for male supercentenarians.


   
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