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Zak's Proposals

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Hey everyone I just wanted to share something with you that I been researching and reading about. So I read one of Zak's newest papers where he gives his ideas on the true ages of supercentenarians. Some of his work I would totally agree with him 100% and him and P. Gibbs have done some brilliant research, but I was kinda bugged by some of it. I'll share what I found.

The opinions in parentheses are my own, not Zak's.

Shigechiyo Izumi: Likely 105 (Zak's got some good evidence supporting this theory, but I fail to see any "certain" proof. I'd say there's a 50% chance of Izumi being 120. Zak thinks he may have gotten confused with his 15 years younger brother, but we need to first find the death certificates of both Izumis. I'd like to say that until this happens, we should consider Izumi the oldest man ever, but still list him as disputed, with Kimura being the oldest undisputed man ever.)

 

Sarah Knauss: Between 116-119 (Personally, I think that it is certain that Mrs. Knauss was 119. The picture of her at age 17 confirms this, as it's unlikely she was any younger. The 1890 census record also shows that Mrs. Knauss was alive and 10 years old.)

 

Nabi Tajima: Between 112-115 (I think it's possible, but considering if she was born in 1900, and had a son at age 18-19, it's extremely unlikely she could've been much younger.)

 

Emma Morano: Possible Identity Switch (WHAT!? Where do Zak and Gibbs get this idea? I have never heard this theory before. I'd say with certainty Mrs. Morano was 117)

 

Violet Brown: Possibly 114 (Again, I do not understand his point here. Zak says that it's possible for Mrs. Brown and her 3 years younger sister to have had an identity swap. If this occurred, which I 99% doubt, when?)

 

Gertrude Weaver: Possibly 111 or 114 (I don't see where the "111" comes from, but Zak does raise a good point about Mrs. Weaver actually being only 114 and not 116. He found a census record showing Mrs. Weaver was listed as age 10 in 1910, thus making her born in 1900 and not 1898. Still, I can't say it's for certain.)

 

Carrie White: Only 102, NOT 116 (I agree with Zak, on all of his points, 100% here)

 

Jiroemon Kimura: Possibly 111 (Zak's only "theory" of Mr. Kimura involves an identity switch between him and his 5 years younger brother, when he went to go take care of his sick brother in Korea. A little strange that his brother's death certificate was never located, but did I mention that this would've occurred when Jiroemon was 90 and his brother was 85? What motive would an 85 year old have to take on th identity of his 90 year old brother? There's a picture of Jiroemon at age 84 on Gerontology.fandom.com and it's clearly the same Jiroemon in later pictures. And also, how would he fool his entire family and all of his friends??? I'm going to have to say Zak is 100% wrong here, and it's with 100% certainty that Mr. Kimura did live 116 years and 54 days.)

 

Mathew Beard: NOT 114 (Zak hit the nail on the head here. Now that it's been confirmed that Mr. Beard was not 114, I think Zak should be given more credit, along with the other person who helped solve this case. I think it was 930310 but I'm can't remember)

 

Walter Breuning: Possibly 106 (Zak makes some pretty good points about Mr. Breuning having an identity swap with his 8 years younger brother. I think its possible and considering Mr. Breuning's birth certificate has never been located, we should further investigate this theory.)

 

Anyway, those are my personal thoughts after reading Zak and Gibbs' newest papers. Yes, I think these guys are brilliant at what they do, but not every person is 100% correct in their theories. I'd also like to see more research done on these cases where they claim to have found evidence of a potential identity switch.

Cases I think Zak got right: (Nabi Tajima, Carrie White, Mathew Beard)

Cases I think Zak has some good points about, but I can't say for sure: (Shigechiyo Izumi, Sarah Knauss, Gertrude Weaver, Walter Breuning)

Cases I think Zak got wrong: (Emma Morano, Violet Brown, Jiroemon Kimura)

In saying my opinions, I would like to invite both Zak and Gibbs to the forum for a friendly debate and just discuss further about their theories. I'm completely open to reading more papers and research and having a chat with them. I may not agree with what they're saying but I'd like to just talk. I'd like to ask them both to please publish a paper on what they think of Mrs. Batuli Lamichhane, Mrs. Kane Tanaka, Mrs. Lucile Randon, Mrs. Fusa Tatsumi, Mrs. Edie Ceccarelli, Mrs. Tomiko Itooka, Mr. Jose Flores Flores, Mr. Juan Vicente Pérez Mora, Mr. Eusebio Quintero Lopez, Mr. Efrain Antonio Rios Garcia, and Mr. Otilio Dominguez Santos. I think all of the cases I mentioned above (Except Jose) are 100% legit, although some have not been validated. I do think like I have mentioned before that the chances of Mr. Jose Flores Flores being 115 are 80% but he should be investigated further. I would love to hear Zak and Gibbs opinion on these cases. And I don't mean that in a condescending way, I mean it in a respectable way. Anyway, lemme know what you think. 

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930310
(@930310)
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This is a laughably bad take by both you and @nzak . These people have been researched and nothing located by tjem is new. Gertrude Weaver, for example, is listed as being born in April 1898 in the 1900 US census. And people stealing their siblings' identities? Come on...


   
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JimJim00
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Regarding Walter Breuning:

 

In all of the United States censuses between 1900 and 1950, he is listed as being born between 1895 and 1897, with the 1900 census specifying a date of birth of September 1896, making a date of birth after 1900 impossible.

 

Also, comparing Walter with his younger brother Frank Everett when they were younger (photo of Frank taken from Find a Grave):

 

 

Look at the differences between their chins and noses. 

 

Need I say more?

 

 

 


   
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Simon Frogg
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Zak’s unsubstantiated Calment conspiracy theory is laughable, but to further claim that so many other supercentenarians swapped identities with siblings, sometimes in late life or in heavily regulated countries, is absurd. This list of claims reads like a parody, not something one would find in a serious scientific publication. How and why would so many swap identities with their siblings? How would they avoid detection by anyone including their family, neighbours, friends and community? Or are all these people in on the secret? How would they avoid detection from the authorities? But, perhaps most importantly, would possible motivation would they have? Especially when one is 90 and the other 85, as in Jiroemon Kimura’s case. As Zak suggests this is so widespread, one can presume that he believes this is widespread amongst the general population, as otherwise why would only those who had swapped identities live such long lives. Zak seems to live in a fantasy world where people, for no discernible reason, regularly swap identities with siblings and it is never noticed or reported by anyone. When he was merely claiming that this happened on one occasion, with Jeanne Calment, he at least retained some thin veneer of respectability or could claim to be acting in good faith, despite the obvious and gaping holes in that theory, but to claim it has been repeated time and time again with so many different supercentenarians (and, by extension, surely many more people in general) is farcical and fully exposes Zak as someone who has no place is serious scientific discourse.

Interested in supercentenarians since 2017.
Favourite supercentenarian: Kane Tanaka (1903-2022)
Favourite living supercentenarian: Juan Vicente Perez Mora (born 1909)


   
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(@metajore)
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Posted by: @aq

Hey everyone I just wanted to share something with you that I been researching and reading about. So I read one of Zak's newest papers where he gives his ideas on the true ages of supercentenarians. Some of his work I would totally agree with him 100% and him and P. Gibbs have done some brilliant research, but I was kinda bugged by some of it. I'll share what I found.

The opinions in parentheses are my own, not Zak's.

Shigechiyo Izumi: Likely 105 (Zak's got some good evidence supporting this theory, but I fail to see any "certain" proof. I'd say there's a 50% chance of Izumi being 120. Zak thinks he may have gotten confused with his 15 years younger brother, but we need to first find the death certificates of both Izumis. I'd like to say that until this happens, we should consider Izumi the oldest man ever, but still list him as disputed, with Kimura being the oldest undisputed man ever.)

 

Sarah Knauss: Between 116-119 (Personally, I think that it is certain that Mrs. Knauss was 119. The picture of her at age 17 confirms this, as it's unlikely she was any younger. The 1890 census record also shows that Mrs. Knauss was alive and 10 years old.)

 

Nabi Tajima: Between 112-115 (I think it's possible, but considering if she was born in 1900, and had a son at age 18-19, it's extremely unlikely she could've been much younger.)

 

Emma Morano: Possible Identity Switch (WHAT!? Where do Zak and Gibbs get this idea? I have never heard this theory before. I'd say with certainty Mrs. Morano was 117)

 

Violet Brown: Possibly 114 (Again, I do not understand his point here. Zak says that it's possible for Mrs. Brown and her 3 years younger sister to have had an identity swap. If this occurred, which I 99% doubt, when?)

 

Gertrude Weaver: Possibly 111 or 114 (I don't see where the "111" comes from, but Zak does raise a good point about Mrs. Weaver actually being only 114 and not 116. He found a census record showing Mrs. Weaver was listed as age 10 in 1910, thus making her born in 1900 and not 1898. Still, I can't say it's for certain.)

 

Carrie White: Only 102, NOT 116 (I agree with Zak, on all of his points, 100% here)

 

Jiroemon Kimura: Possibly 111 (Zak's only "theory" of Mr. Kimura involves an identity switch between him and his 5 years younger brother, when he went to go take care of his sick brother in Korea. A little strange that his brother's death certificate was never located, but did I mention that this would've occurred when Jiroemon was 90 and his brother was 85? What motive would an 85 year old have to take on th identity of his 90 year old brother? There's a picture of Jiroemon at age 84 on Gerontology.fandom.com and it's clearly the same Jiroemon in later pictures. And also, how would he fool his entire family and all of his friends??? I'm going to have to say Zak is 100% wrong here, and it's with 100% certainty that Mr. Kimura did live 116 years and 54 days.)

 

Mathew Beard: NOT 114 (Zak hit the nail on the head here. Now that it's been confirmed that Mr. Beard was not 114, I think Zak should be given more credit, along with the other person who helped solve this case. I think it was 930310 but I'm can't remember)

 

Walter Breuning: Possibly 106 (Zak makes some pretty good points about Mr. Breuning having an identity swap with his 8 years younger brother. I think its possible and considering Mr. Breuning's birth certificate has never been located, we should further investigate this theory.)

 

Anyway, those are my personal thoughts after reading Zak and Gibbs' newest papers. Yes, I think these guys are brilliant at what they do, but not every person is 100% correct in their theories. I'd also like to see more research done on these cases where they claim to have found evidence of a potential identity switch.

Cases I think Zak got right: (Nabi Tajima, Carrie White, Mathew Beard)

Cases I think Zak has some good points about, but I can't say for sure: (Shigechiyo Izumi, Sarah Knauss, Gertrude Weaver, Walter Breuning)

Cases I think Zak got wrong: (Emma Morano, Violet Brown, Jiroemon Kimura)

In saying my opinions, I would like to invite both Zak and Gibbs to the forum for a friendly debate and just discuss further about their theories. I'm completely open to reading more papers and research and having a chat with them. I may not agree with what they're saying but I'd like to just talk. I'd like to ask them both to please publish a paper on what they think of Mrs. Batuli Lamichhane, Mrs. Kane Tanaka, Mrs. Lucile Randon, Mrs. Fusa Tatsumi, Mrs. Edie Ceccarelli, Mrs. Tomiko Itooka, Mr. Jose Flores Flores, Mr. Juan Vicente Pérez Mora, Mr. Eusebio Quintero Lopez, Mr. Efrain Antonio Rios Garcia, and Mr. Otilio Dominguez Santos. I think all of the cases I mentioned above (Except Jose) are 100% legit, although some have not been validated. I do think like I have mentioned before that the chances of Mr. Jose Flores Flores being 115 are 80% but he should be investigated further. I would love to hear Zak and Gibbs opinion on these cases. And I don't mean that in a condescending way, I mean it in a respectable way. Anyway, lemme know what you think. 

I dont agree with any of these, plus I have no idea why this guy is still being taken seriously. I intially believed this guy a little but he continues to do this with all other supercentenarians, this guy is definitely not a credible source to me anymore.

 


   
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@930310 Agreed. This is my first take on researching SCs that have already been validated, so Zak's research was the first I had come across. In the past, I had only researched SCs that were unvalidated or listed as longevity claimants, so this is new for me. But you are right 100% that it's incredibly unlikely that every single case that Zak theorized over had an identity switch. Like seriously we have more of a chance of validating a 130 year old than every one of Zak's identity switch theories being correct.

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@jimjim00 Case closed. Walter Breuning had no possibility of an identity switch. His bone structure was way too different from his brother's.

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@simon-frogg Agreed. Zak seems to take in gullible people like me and turn them toward his beliefs. I mean he made some very good points, and he was correct about Carrie White and Mathew Beard but the rest of his work needs way more research and investigation of he wants to prove anything. And I shouldn't like to discuss the Calment theory, but you're right that when it's one person who he's claiming swapped identities, it seems plausible. But when he's claiming that all these people swapped identities, it just gets ridiculous. He actually claimed that most of the women 115 and above and most of the men 113 and above had a potential identity swap, but I only included the ones I read. I realize now that his theories are way out there. His theory on Kimura was of extremely poor taste. As if an 85 year old sick patient would choose to take on his 90 year old brother's identity. Ridiculous that he would even suggest such a theory he factual.

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@metajore Dude it's unbelievable how many people accept everything he says as correct. I mean I did believe a few things he has said in the past, but I never even came close to believing every single one of his theories. He was right about Beard and White, and he's probably correct about Tajima and Izumi but that's where I would draw the line of his plausible claims. He also suggested that after Mortensen moved to the United States, in his old age, someone may have taken on his identity and considered sending his relatives in Demark, letters. This I dismissed right away as this is just absolute nonsense, which is why I did not include it in my opinions at the top post.

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ChrisR
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The above negativity is all accurate and fair.

Zak tends to do two things Aquanaut_Chalk.

1. Copy and quote the research of others on debunked cases. As has been said above, there is nothing new here, re the debunked cases of Izumi, Beard, Carrie White and others. 

None of this is his work.

2. Put forward conspiracy theories on other cases - always without documentation or proof.

There is never any meaningful proof behind the Calments, Breunings and others that fall into category 2. 

If he came up with some solid documents to support even some of his theories he could have some credibility. As it sits he just wastes everyone’s time.


   
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Personally, I tend not to believe anything else this guy says about supercentenarians and conspiracy theories. There's a limit to where is acceptable to debate, but that's crossed the line with this post...


   
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@cbb12355 I agree with you. After reviewing more of Zak's conspiracy theories, I have to conclude that his claims have zero credibility. I Shouldn't like to say anything rude about Zak, but I mean the honest truth is that some of his theories, especially the ones on Morano, Kimura, Randon, and Mortensen are pure nonsensical. Personally, after hearing what the other members on the gsf have to say, they have opened my eyes to the truth about Zak, and I too can no longer give him the benefit of the doubt.

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FWIW, the identity switch hypothesis was even ruled out in Delphia Welford's case thanks to me finding 1885 and 1892 Mississippi school census records for her and her siblings, so I'm extraordinarily skeptical of this hypothesis for the other SCs mentioned above, other than possibly for Mathew Beard, and even then, it wasn't an *intentional* identity switch even there.


   
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I think it's quite sad that Zak publishes these papers claiming to have "newly discovered" information on these Supercentenarians, but it's his own personal theories and none of them are backed up by science. A gullible person such as myself reads his papers, and ends up believing and then spreading the false information that Zak published. 

 

I mean he can publish whatever theories he has in mind, as long as he makes sure to clearly state that these are his personal "theories" and not fact, the way he misleads people to believe. Like that nonsense he published about Jiroemon Kimura having an identity swap with his brother when he was in his 90s? I mean, come on that's ridiculous. And I was a bit disappointed when he came out and said that Mrs. Lucile Randon was "much" younger than the age claimed. I think that it is without a doubt that Mrs. Randon lived 118 years & 340 days, end of story. 

 

And he needs to provide actual evidence of these theories he has. Like when he said that Mrs. Emma Morano was several years younger than 117, but he had absolutely no evidence to show anything. He literally said that no evidence was provided him. First of all, Mrs. Morano was indeed 100% 117 years old, so if Zak wants to theorize, he should find cases that are not already validated, the way Mrs. Morano's case is. Second, Zak should change his frequent use of the word "probably" to "possibly", unless he has genuine probable evidence instead of just some theory. 

 

EDIT: Zak also needs to admit when evidence shows that he was wrong. Like, I was 100% totally wrong about my theories of Goddard Diamond. I mean, I get it's hard to admit when you're wrong but it's not the end of the world. If Zak just came out and said he was wrong about Breuning, Morano, Randon, Tanaka, Kimura and all the others it would at least make him a more respectable. 

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ChrisR
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Admitting when one is wrong, also tends to engender respect from others and enhance the credibility of the person who is big enough to do it.


   
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930310
(@930310)
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@aquanaut_chalk This is a mature take and I am glad that you understand when there needs to be skepticism, and when there doesn’t.


   
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