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Supercentenarian Statistics

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AQ
 AQ
(@aq)
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Joined: 2 years ago
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Hello everyone I would to share a math formula that I came up with.

NOTE: I AM NOT SAYING MY MATH IS CORRECT, IT VERY WELL COULD BE WRONG. My goal is to try and help come up with ways to prove and disprove things with science and math. Even if it is wrong, it might spark someone who is good at this kind of stuff to use my idea and come up with a correct formula.

Here's what I came up with:

Men who made it to 114: Years born, 1870, 1882, 1889, 1889, 1891, 1896, 1897, 1905, +4 years (One born every 4.875 years)

Men who made it to 115: Years born, 1882, 1891, 1897 +11 years (One born every 8.6 years)

Men who made it to 116: Years born, 1897 +10 years (One born every 10 years)

After figuring out the average, we should see a 117 year old man born every 32-ish years. Assuming Beard is true, 1870 + 32 = 1902, so the statistics make it out to be that we are due to see a 117 year old man!

1905 + 4.875 = late 1909

1897 + 8.6 = mid 1905

1897 + 10 = early 1907

1870 + 32 = early 1902

So my math comes out that it is likely we will see a 117 year old man born between January 1, 1902 and late 1909. It seems that Mr. Mora should be next in line to the male longevity throne.

|Male| ๐ŸŽฎGamer๐ŸŽฎ > ๐Ÿ‘•Fashion Lover๐Ÿ‘• > ๐Ÿ•ถChore Motivator๐Ÿ•ถ
Favorite Male SC: Juan Vicente Pรฉrez Mora
Favorite Female SCs: Lucile Randon & Kane Tanaka
๐Ÿ˜And the kind of guy that's always down to chat๐Ÿ˜


   
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(@futurist)
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How would your calculations change if Anisio Rodrigues Alves (1892-2009) was included in them?


   
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AQ
 AQ
(@aq)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 740
Topic starter  

@futurist I don't know lol. That took hours for me to come up with. It would probably mean that there is a higher chance for a man to make to 117 and sooner. I believe Alves was true btw.

|Male| ๐ŸŽฎGamer๐ŸŽฎ > ๐Ÿ‘•Fashion Lover๐Ÿ‘• > ๐Ÿ•ถChore Motivator๐Ÿ•ถ
Favorite Male SC: Juan Vicente Pรฉrez Mora
Favorite Female SCs: Lucile Randon & Kane Tanaka
๐Ÿ˜And the kind of guy that's always down to chat๐Ÿ˜


   
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AQ
 AQ
(@aq)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 740
Topic starter  

If someone could take this chart and fill in the correct numbers I would really appreciate it!

NOTE: I recognize this is NOT the correct formula. I simply plugged in 6 months to start with, because I can't do advanced math. I then multiplied each outcome by 50% which is the lower-bound odds of an SC reaching their next Birthday. I really hope this inspires someone to plug in the correct math.ย 

114 year old woman: Born every 6 monthsย 

115 year old woman: Born every 1 year

116 year old woman: Born every 2 years

117 year old woman: Born every 4 years

118 year old woman: Born every 8 years

119 year old woman: Born every 16 years

120 year old woman: Born every 32 years

121 year old woman: Born every 64 years

122 year old woman: Born every 128 years

123 year old woman: Born every 256 years

ย 

110 year old man: Born every 6 months

111 year old man: Born every 1 year

112 year old man: Born every 2 years

113 year old man: Born every 4 years

114 year old man: Born every 8 years

115 year old man: Born every 16 years

116 year old man: Born every 32 years

117 year old man: Born every 64 years

118 year old man: Born every 128 years

119 year old man: Born every 256 years

Would the Bell curve be of any help here? I tried using it and I could not understand it. I also recognize these numbers are probably much higher. As a 122 year old woman to represent Calment is probably more like Born every 5,000 years rather than every 128 years. But to plug in the correct numbers is way too advanced for me. This is about my limit here. I really hope this can give someone an idea or help someone.

|Male| ๐ŸŽฎGamer๐ŸŽฎ > ๐Ÿ‘•Fashion Lover๐Ÿ‘• > ๐Ÿ•ถChore Motivator๐Ÿ•ถ
Favorite Male SC: Juan Vicente Pรฉrez Mora
Favorite Female SCs: Lucile Randon & Kane Tanaka
๐Ÿ˜And the kind of guy that's always down to chat๐Ÿ˜


   
diego reacted
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