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Topic starter
17/02/2023 10:04 am
Hello everyone I would to share a math formula that I came up with.
NOTE: I AM NOT SAYING MY MATH IS CORRECT, IT VERY WELL COULD BE WRONG. My goal is to try and help come up with ways to prove and disprove things with science and math. Even if it is wrong, it might spark someone who is good at this kind of stuff to use my idea and come up with a correct formula.
Here's what I came up with:
Men who made it to 114: Years born, 1870, 1882, 1889, 1889, 1891, 1896, 1897, 1905, +4 years (One born every 4.875 years)
Men who made it to 115: Years born, 1882, 1891, 1897 +11 years (One born every 8.6 years)
Men who made it to 116: Years born, 1897 +10 years (One born every 10 years)
After figuring out the average, we should see a 117 year old man born every 32-ish years. Assuming Beard is true, 1870 + 32 = 1902, so the statistics make it out to be that we are due to see a 117 year old man!
1905 + 4.875 = late 1909
1897 + 8.6 = mid 1905
1897 + 10 = early 1907
1870 + 32 = early 1902
So my math comes out that it is likely we will see a 117 year old man born between January 1, 1902 and late 1909. It seems that Mr. Mora should be next in line to the male longevity throne.
|Male| ๐ฎGamer๐ฎ > ๐Fashion Lover๐ > ๐ถChore Motivator๐ถ
Favorite Male SC: Juan Vicente Pรฉrez Mora
Favorite Female SCs: Lucile Randon & Kane Tanaka
๐And the kind of guy that's always down to chat๐
diego reacted
17/02/2023 10:05 am
How would your calculations change if Anisio Rodrigues Alves (1892-2009) was included in them?
Topic starter
17/02/2023 10:07 am
@futurist I don't know lol. That took hours for me to come up with. It would probably mean that there is a higher chance for a man to make to 117 and sooner. I believe Alves was true btw.
|Male| ๐ฎGamer๐ฎ > ๐Fashion Lover๐ > ๐ถChore Motivator๐ถ
Favorite Male SC: Juan Vicente Pรฉrez Mora
Favorite Female SCs: Lucile Randon & Kane Tanaka
๐And the kind of guy that's always down to chat๐
Topic starter
17/02/2023 10:18 am
If someone could take this chart and fill in the correct numbers I would really appreciate it!
NOTE: I recognize this is NOT the correct formula. I simply plugged in 6 months to start with, because I can't do advanced math. I then multiplied each outcome by 50% which is the lower-bound odds of an SC reaching their next Birthday. I really hope this inspires someone to plug in the correct math.ย
114 year old woman: Born every 6 monthsย
115 year old woman: Born every 1 year
116 year old woman: Born every 2 years
117 year old woman: Born every 4 years
118 year old woman: Born every 8 years
119 year old woman: Born every 16 years
120 year old woman: Born every 32 years
121 year old woman: Born every 64 years
122 year old woman: Born every 128 years
123 year old woman: Born every 256 years
ย
110 year old man: Born every 6 months
111 year old man: Born every 1 year
112 year old man: Born every 2 years
113 year old man: Born every 4 years
114 year old man: Born every 8 years
115 year old man: Born every 16 years
116 year old man: Born every 32 years
117 year old man: Born every 64 years
118 year old man: Born every 128 years
119 year old man: Born every 256 years
Would the Bell curve be of any help here? I tried using it and I could not understand it. I also recognize these numbers are probably much higher. As a 122 year old woman to represent Calment is probably more like Born every 5,000 years rather than every 128 years. But to plug in the correct numbers is way too advanced for me. This is about my limit here. I really hope this can give someone an idea or help someone.
|Male| ๐ฎGamer๐ฎ > ๐Fashion Lover๐ > ๐ถChore Motivator๐ถ
Favorite Male SC: Juan Vicente Pรฉrez Mora
Favorite Female SCs: Lucile Randon & Kane Tanaka
๐And the kind of guy that's always down to chat๐
diego reacted
